Analisis Perbandingan Akurasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dengan Optimasi Parameter Alpha dan Single Moving Average Pada Sistem Peramalan Kebutuhan Stok Produk Bangunan
Studi Kasus: UD Ema Kencana Abadi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46880/jmika.Vol10No1.pp217-225Keywords:
Stock Forecasting, Single Exponential Smoothing, Single Moving Average, Alpha Optimization, MAPEAbstract
Manual inventory management at UD Ema Kencana Abadi has the potential to cause recording errors and stock imbalances. The primary focus of this study is to implement a web-platform-based inventory system that integrates forecasting techniques as a decision-support instrument. The method used is Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) with dynamic optimization of the alpha (α) parameter through iteration to obtain the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which is then compared with the Single Moving Average (SMA-3). Testing was conducted using nine months of historical sales data on six building material products. The results showed that SMA-3 is more optimal for data with stable fluctuations, yielding a MAPE of 11.91%, whereas the optimized SES is more accurate for data with medium to high fluctuations. The implementation of this system improves forecasting accuracy and supports more objective stock procurement decision-making.
References
Afandi, R. R., & Ismiyah, E. (2024). Analisis Peramalan Penjualan Semen Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing. JUSTI (Jurnal Sistem Dan Teknik Industri), 5(2), 188.
Affif Valensyah, F., & Irnawati, O. (2024). Sistem Informasi Berbasis Website Menggunakan Framework Laravel. INSANtek, 5(1), 07–14. https://doi.org/10.31294/insantek.v5i1.3408
Agustio, R. F., Baharianto, A. I., Mulia, R. P., & Haryono, W. (2024). Perancangan Sistem Inventory dan Transaksi Pembelian Stok Barang Berbasis Web Dengan Metode Waterfall. Jurnal Restikom : Riset Teknik Informatika Dan Komputer, 6(3), 554–564.
Angraina Fitri, D., & Sofia, J. (2023). Perancangan sistem inventory barang gudang berbasis website. Jurnal CoSciTech (Computer Science and Information Technology), 4(1), 293–298. https://doi.org/10.37859/coscitech.v4i1.4794
Anis, Y., Wahyudi, E. N., & Kurniawan, H. C. (2024). Metode Waterfall dalam Pengembangan Sistem Inventaris Guna Meningkatkan Efisiensi Manajemen Stok Barang. Jurnal Teknologi Dan Sistem Informasi Bisnis, 6(2), 329–338. https://doi.org/10.47233/jteksis.v6i2.1351
Antika, N. G., & Nathasia, N. D. (2024). Implementasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) Pada Aplikasi Inventory Berbasis Web. JURNAL SISTEM INFORMASI DAN TEKNOLOGI INFORMAS, 13(1), 192–198.
Fauziah, L. (2022). PENERAPAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN MOVING AVERAGE PADA PREDIKSI STOCK PRODUK RETAIL BERBASIS WEB. STRING (Satuan Tulisan Riset Dan Inovasi Teknologi), 7(2), 159–168.
Handayani, H., Ayulya, A. M., Faizah, K. U., Wulan, D., & Rozan, M. F. (2023). Perancangan Sistem Informasi Inventory Barang Berbasis Web Menggunakan Metode Agile Software Development. Jurnal Testing Dan Implementasi Sistem Informasi, 1(1), 29–40. https://doi.org/10.55583/jtisi.v1i1.324
Kusuma, D. T., Purwanto, Y. S., Sudirman, M. Y. D., Fitriani, Y., & Saputra, A. L. (2023). Optimization of Alpha Parameters in Single Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting Coffee Raw Material Stocks. International Conference on Networking, Electrical Engineering, Computer Science, and Technology (IConNECT), 207–212.
Maspupah, A. (2024). LITERATURE REVIEW: ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF BLACK BOX AND WHITE BOX TESTING METHODS. Techno Nusa Mandiri: Journal of Computing and Information Technology, 21(2), 151–162.
Mustopa, M., Junaedi, I., & Sianipar, A. Z. (2021). Sistem informasi penjualan dan pengendalian stock barang bangunan pada toko bangunan delima. Jurnal Manajemen Informatika Jayakarta, 1(April), 105–116. https://doi.org/10.52362/jmijayakarta.v1i2.447
Narulita, S., Nugroho, A., & Abdillah, M. Z. (2024). Diagram Unified Modelling Language (UML) untuk Perancangan Sistem Informasi Manajemen Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (SIMLITABMAS). BRIDGE : Jurnal Publikasi Sistem Informasi Dan Telekomunikasi, 2(3), 244–256.
Pazira, E., Zulhan Widya Baskara, & Aini, Q. (2024). Perbandingan Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Air Bersih PT. Air Minum Giri Menang dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt dan Brown menggunakan Optimasi Algoritma Kuadratik. Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science, 1(1), 37–47. https://doi.org/10.29303/ijasds.v1i1.5793
Qisthina, N. A. C., Andarwati, M., & Putri, D. M. (2025). Desain sistem informasi inventaris barang untuk Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM) berbasis website. Journal of Information System and Application Development, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.26905/jisad.v3i1.15396
Rensi, V., Alfa, N., & Putri, A. L. (2022). Comparison of SES and SMA Method Against Production Level Property of Fabrication Precision Engineering and Its Effect on Production Planning ( Case Study PT X ). EAI Endorsed Transactions, 8(4), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.4108/eetel.3709
Sulistyowati, Muthahari, F. A., Rachman, A., Uttungga, R., & Utami, R. (2025). Implementasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Pada Analisa Peramalan Penjualan Voucher. SNESTIK, 187–194.
Sumiati, M., Abdillah, R., & Cahyo, A. (2021). Pemodelan UML untuk Sistem Informasi Persewaan Alat Pesta. JURNAL FASILKOM, 11(2), 79–86.
Yudanto, B. W., & Hartanto, B. (2022). Implementasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Melakukan Perkiraan Stok Barang di Toko Makanan Ringan Berbasis Sistem Informasi. Journal of Economic, Management, Accounting and Technology, 5(2), 188–199. https://doi.org/10.32500/jematech.v5i2.2563
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 I Made Sesa Putra, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Harry Saptarini, Ni Nyoman Harini Puspita
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
