PENERAPAN REGRESI LINEAR BERGANDA DALAM MEMPREDIKSI POPULASI SAPI DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR

Rithwan Bernadus  Rissi; Sumarlin; Yohanis Malelak

doi:10.46880/mtk.v12i2.5966

Authors

Rithwan Bernadus Rissi STIKOM Uyelindo Kupang
Sumarlin
Yohanis Malelak

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46880/mtk.v12i2.5966

Keywords:

Cattle Population Prediction, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), Livestock Growth Factors, Multiple Linear Regression, Predictive Modeling

Abstract

Nusa Tenggara is one of the largest beef cattle-producing provinces in Indonesia; however, the dynamics of the cattle population in this region show unstable fluctuations, including a sharp decline of 53.2% from 1,243,884 head (2022) to 581,918 head (2023). This study aims to analyze the influence of rainfall, feed availability, and beef production on the beef cattle population in East Nusa Tenggara, while also developing a prediction model based on multiple linear regression. Secondary data for the 2014–2024 period were obtained from the East Nusa Tenggara Central Statistics Agency. Missing values were imputed using quadratic interpolation and linear extrapolation. The regression model was estimated using Cramer’s rule and implemented in a Python-based prediction system with a Tkinter graphical interface. The research results yielded the regression equation with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.570473, MAE = 98,348.3527 head, MSE = 13,841,152,103.80, and RMSE = 117,648.43 head. The predicted cattle population for 2025 is 628,276.38 head, indicating a recovery trend. This model serves as an initial tool for local governments in planning strategies for livestock population recovery in East Nusa Tenggara.

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