Moderating Role of Tourist Site Development in the Relationship Between Hotel Occupancy and Tourism Revenue: Evidence from Samosir Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

Tourism has become one of the main economic pillars for regional development in Indonesia, particularly in areas with natural destinations like Samosir Regency. However, post-pandemic recovery challenges and underdeveloped attractions continue to hinder tourism income optimization. This study examines how hotel occupancy and tourist arrivals affect tourism sector revenue, with the number of tourist attractions acting as a moderating variable. This quantitative research employed a descriptive approach using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The study employed purposive sampling from a population of 305,203 tourists in 2025, resulting in 250 valid responses. The constructs measured included hotel occupancy rates, the number of tourist visits, the number of tourist sites, and tourism revenue. Validity and reliability were confirmed through convergent validity, composite reliability, and path coefficient analysis. The results indicate that hotel occupancy and tourist arrivals have a significant impact on tourism revenue (p < 0.05). Furthermore, the number of tourist sites significantly moderates the effect of these variables on revenue generation. The model can explain over 85% of the variance in tourism revenue, according to R-square values. The increase in available and attractive tourist sites strengthens the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. These results highlight the strategic importance of developing and diversifying tourist sites in increasing regional tourism income. We encourage stakeholders, including government and private sector investors, to enhance tourism infrastructure and hospitality services to boost destination competitiveness and economic returns.